What’s wrong with NBC? [Update]

[Update] CNN is reporting that an NBC executive has confirmed that Jay Leno is moving back to late night after “disappointing ratings for a prime-time show. What this means for The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien and Late Night with Jimmy Fallon is uncertain. NBC executive Jeff Gaspin has proposed the shift of The Tonight Show to 12:05 AM and Late Night to 1:05 Am but at this time neither O’Brien nor Fallon had agreed to the shift.

Here’s where it gets interesting though. Rumor has it that Jay Leno will host a shortened Tonight Show that airs 11:35. Conan would go back to hosting Late Night at 12:05 and Fallon will host a new show that will air at 1:05.

Whatever becomes of this, one thing is for sure, NBC really dropped the ball on its once dominant late night lineup.

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While flipping through the channels, doesn’t it always seem like there is nothing worth watching? Well, if you’ve stumbled upon NBC after 10 PM in recent months, apparently you’ve just kept going though the channel listings.

In case anyone has been living under a television sized rock and hasn’t heard of the late night problems at NBC, let me fill you in. In 2009, NBC’s long time late night lineup got a shakeup. First, in February, Conan O’Brien left Late Night at 12:35 to prepare for his move to the Tonight Show, long hosted by Jay Leno at 11:35. Taking Conan’s place was Jimmy Fallon, who has done well with Late Night. Then in June, The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien debuted, followed by the Jay Leno Show’s debut at the 10 PM slot in September.

NBC took a gamble with this move, hoping that Conan would bring his younger audience along with him to 11:35. Sadly, that hasn’t happened. I can say that while I used to watch Conan at least three or four times a week while he was on Late Night, I’m lucky to catch him once a week on the Tonight Show.

At least for me, this decline in watching isn’t because of a lack of quality, I think Conan is as funny as ever, it’s simply the earlier time slot is harder for me to catch. I find myself watching Fallon more than Conan, even though I believe Conan is the funnier of the two. It simply boils down to what time is more convenient.

As for Leno, his move to 10 has been a financial success for NBC, as producing his talk show five days a week is astronomically cheaper than producing at least five other shows that would have to fill that time slot over a week. While the Jay Leno Show’s ratings have been on par with Leno’s version of the Tonight Show, they have been far off of what other shows in that time slot are drawing.

While the parent company NBC doesn’t have a problem with this as they are making money, the networks affiliates are hurting because the lead in from Leno is so much less than it was for even the weakest shows that aired at 10 previously. This leads to a drop in their late local news ratings which leads to a decline in revenue.

So what is NBC to do about this botched experiment? Most people are speculating that NBC is going to move the Jay Leno Show to 11:35 and cut it from an hour long program to a half-hour, bump the Tonight Show to 12:05 and bump Late Night to 1:05.

So who is helped and hurt by this time shift?

Starting at the top, NBC is helped ratings wise, as they would get their ratings back to par for the 10 o’clock slot. Even a lousy show gets at least double the ratings Leno is pulling in. The affiliates get their local news lead in back, helping what is usually their highly profitable late local newscasts. NBC gets Leno back at 11:35, where he beat David Letterman’s Late Show on CBS for years, but recently Letterman has passed Conan at that slot.

So what happens to Conan and Fallon? With a move to 12:05, Conan could potentially get some of his old Late Night ratings back, as he wouldn’t have to content with the beginning of any other late night shows.

Who really stands to lose, however, is Jimmy Fallon. Moving his show to 1:05 would likely cause a drop in ratings, as that this a time of the night when television viewership declines. With a smaller potential audience, there is really no where to go but down for Late Night.

I feel this whole situation is a shame, as two very talented comedians, Conan O’Brien and Jimmy Fallon, stand to be at the mercy of NBC and Jay Leno.

While NBC has said they are committed to keeping Conan on the network, who is to say he won’t leave for another network after his reported two year contract comes to an end in 2011.

So what should NBC do? Leave things as they are, move Leno back to 11:35 and bump Conan and Fallon or come up with a different plan?